Are We in the Bull or in the Bear?
Spoiler: The Bull Run Has Started!
The case for this claim is undeniable. Cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, mirrors the intrinsic cyclical nature that governs our universe—from the movements of celestial bodies to the organic ebb and flow of life, and even the oscillations of the stock market.
BTC has a cyclical nature attributed to its halving cycle.
Using the last three halving cycles, it’s worth noting that BTC’s price tops 12-17 months after the halving. Over the course of the 12-17 months, BTC is just basically on a very strong upward trend. So, if we follow the BTC halving cycle, WE ARE NOW IN THE BULL MARKET.
And of course, with the mother of all cryptocurrencies thriving, ALTcoins and businesses surrounding it also thrive. This includes mining companies, central exchanges, liquidity aggregators, and Layer 1s that facilitate fast, secure, and scalable BTC transactions, (like Alephium!)
Need more evidence? Let's take a look at the most recent news. Keep in mind that news like this doesn't happen in a Bear Market; rather, it is quite the opposite!
#1 Rumors About Strategic BTC Reserve
With news like this, nobody is an expert. But whether this happens or not, it adds to the compelling case of Bitcoin's Cyclicality. Politicians are now talking about Bitcoin positively, and soon many people will start to pick up. Nayib Bukele kickstarted this move, and even through the deepest, toughest bear market, El Salvador accumulated. But did you notice any positive market reaction or excitement when they were buying the dip during the bear? You didn't, right? That's because positive actions like holding and BTFD don't get attention during bear market cycles. And now, why does this news matter? It's because we are in the bull!
Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming Senator
Sources: Bitcoin News, Fox Business
Robert F. Kennedy Jr: "I am a huge supporter of Bitcoin. I have most of my wealth in Bitcoin. I am fully committed."
Sources: Bitcoin News, and a video snippet by AutismCapital.
And of course, Donald Trump: Cointelegraph
#2 BTC Massive Accumulation by ETF Companies
Bitwise, Fidelity, and BlackRock are adding $500M in Bitcoin ETFs. The bull case for Bitcoin remains strong as major ETF providers continue to accumulate.
#3 BTC Accumulation by Medium to Small-sized Companies
It's no secret that these companies have been accumulating Bitcoin and will continue to do so until they can't afford it anymore. Some prominent companies to mention are MicroStrategy, ARK Invest, and MARA.
Today, MARA (MarathonDH) has purchased $100M worth of BTC and is now on a FULL HODL Strategy.
If this doesn't seem like a bull market, I don't know what is.
Now that the bulls are in, comes ALT season. Let's take a look at the positive news surrounding the ALT market.
Altcoin News
The SEC has approved 9 Ethereum spot ETF applications.
This is an important milestone for crypto as a whole. If you look at the history, Ethereum has sold "pre-mines" to fund development (also known as Initial Coin Offering or ICO), making it a "security" for most of the bear market. This pivotal moment opens up many opportunities for Altcoins. SOL ETF could be next. Take note that this did not happen overnight, or in just 2 years, or in 1 cycle-- It's a decade-long journey!
CZ's Release
Binance's former CEO Chengpeng Zhao, also known as CZ was sentenced to 4 months in prison on April 30, 2024. He is expected to be released around the end of August 2024 which is just next month. This is important as it could spark positive reaction in the altcoin market.
Source: Binance Square
ALPH Season
Let me start again by saying that the strong case for the bull market is finally here. And when the mother of all cryptocurrencies thriving, her children, the Altcoins will also thrive. Let's talk about Alephium!
Alephium: Strong Fundamentals, Strong Bull Case
In every bull cycle, there are different themes. The last one focused on PoS and the Metaverse. These themes were aligned with several macro factors from the preceding bear market, both positive and negative. For example, ESG FUD (negative) and Meta (positive) shaped the narrative for PoS chains and Metaverse projects to thrive in the following bull market.
In the most recent bear market, we also have mixed news. Negative: Central Exchanges Collapse. Positive: AI, DePin, and RWA.
Extrapolating our thesis, this could open up opportunities for cryptocurrencies focusing on AI and Self custody.
Unpopular Opinion: In the last bull cycle, the positive narrative around the Metaverse flopped hard. I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings or use harsh words, but metaverse-focused projects are currently in limbo. We can look at GALA, Decentraland, Sandbox, Illuvium, and Star Atlas. And man, if you are holding/dca-ing this, I know that it sucks.
These narratives were very strong back in the last bull cycle; you heard every positive news imaginable. Yet today, they are nowhere to be heard again.
This brings me to my next prediction... this current cycle has many strong positive narratives. I did not touch any of the AI projects because this tech is full of hype, and there is not much clarity on how they will unfold in the future. We don't know it's actual valuation. I know it is big and usable, but there are still questions needed to be answered. Murphy's Law says, "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong," and you don't want to be there when it happens. Right now, we haven't defined our risks and rewards for these projects.
Prediction #1: Almost all of these AI Tokens will crash -90% on the next bear cycle.
Prediction #2: I strongly believe L1s and projects that focus on improved security will prosper. Say goodbye to wallet drains and flash loan attacks.
I also believe, DePin and RWAs will also gain traction and further development because we now have platforms that can properly integrate these concepts. The crossover of crypto to Tradfi has now happened through the ETFs. RWA tokenization is now more possible and sensible than ever. (I have included hyperlinks if you want to learn more about DePin and RWA.)
Alephium is at the bleeding edge of blockchain technology. It is the culmination of all the good things we've learned from 15yrs. From Bitcoin's security to Ethereum's programmability to Solana's fast TPS, and supposedly scalability.
The 15-yearlong problem of blockchain trilemma has been solved. It is time for secured, programmable and scalable blockchains to thrive. But there is only ONE which was created from the ground up that is UTxO based, rust-based (which is very programmable), and sharded, and that is Alephium. This leads me to my third prediction...
Prediction #3: Alephium will hit mainstream recognition this bull cycle.
If you are new to Alephium, please check out this link to learn more about it: https://docs.alephium.org/
Thanks for staying with me. I will create a separate newsletter for the Alephium Ecosystem Update, and next ASICs. Make sure to follow the Alephium Gazette for more insights like this.
See you on the next one! Cheers. 🥂
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