Alright alright. It's Saturday. Just less than 24hrs ago I dropped some massive teasers and today we are at MAX FEAR.
Despite not being to share the news atm, I was able to share my emotions through the blog posted earlier. I slept so soundly after receiving some massive news. And just a few hours ago, I woke up to see the ALPH chart is on fire! RED. 😅
It got me thinking-
"holdon, do I get my coffee first or check the details now?"
I said-
"Ah, fvck, all mugs are still on the sink!"
First, I checked the BTC chart.. Its daily candle is green. Good. I checked the Tradingview altcoin list. They're all green. Good! I checked TOTAL2 which is the Crypto Total Marketcap Excluding BTC, and its daily candle is green! Okay, great!
I then asked myself-
Ok, then why is ALPH candle fvcked?
Two things came to mind.
#1. Something Broke. Fed broke something. Russia/China/Taiwan/Israel broke.
#2. mAniPulaTioN.
There's only one way to find that out. THE EXPLORER!!! (in GothamChess' voice THE ROOK!!!)
I headed out first to Mobula.io and tried to get a good grasp of the ALPH ecosystem. Well, it's red... but AYIN though... double digits red! I went straight to AYIN transactions and here's what I saw.
A giant 1HR sell volume candle. Checked the transactions to see if this was made by one person, 2-3 people, or retail (like at least 50 transactions from different wallets).
Rationale before we dive in.
If one person capitulated on AYIN, this is a buying opportunity.
If two to three people, as long as these are not team tokens, this is also a buying opportunity.
Retail capitulation. Then it will take some time to bottom, and I'm not going to buy.
Why is ALPH in RED but you are buying AYIN?
I'll explain later. So stick with me.
There are 4 large scale SELL transactions.
Let's dive right in.
Whale Dump TX#1 and #2!!
TX: https://explorer.alephium.org/transactions/c91d15fa5f2b826a5e6279ef1e787d1463dbc9c3157210f828cb265c4ef31886
Wallet: 16pZjpv85bbitDz8GuFREqa1EtFCerPUVvZDY9badogXC
Lets call this wallet Bad Dog. For obvious reasons. This wallet accounts for the first two whale transactions. BAD DOG!
He sold a total of 10'623 AYIN for 61'116 ALPH and transferred it to his resting wallet. We can't call it a cold wallet because all ALPH that goes there gets sold to Gate.io eventually. It's weird, I know. Maybe just some whale practices?
This is the resting wallet. Which again, gets eventually drained. BUT, the ALPH is still there!! This is not the guy who sold! At least, not yet.
Resting Wallet: 19kuQm8jAa9XeWhyJdopJVAcVgu6PBjAu6RqtD8Y6Nzh6
On his wallet’s birthday he bought massive amounts of AYIN right away. (Indicates he knows what he is doing.) An AYIN early adopter. An AYIN OG.
We can see 2 large ALPH transfers from Gate.io in the same month he started buying AYIN. This makes me think he saw an opportunity in AYIN and eventually became an ALPH bull. Nice!
BAD DOG Conclusion:
At least from what I'm seeing, this is an AYIN whale capitulation. He is not an ALPH OG who's been around for 2 years. In fact, he's only been around for 5 months.
This wallet has a massive AYIN stack which was bought 5 months ago at an average of 3.77 ALPH per AYIN. Sold at 5.5 ALPH. He just can't handle the heat anymore and wants to take profit. Just that.
Did he really profit though? I THINK SO.
ALPH price 5 months ago (JAN) had a wide range of $1.00 to $1.80. These are not exact averages but you get the point. So yes, it's more likely a profitable move. Whales don't become whales by being stupid anyways.
Whale Dump TX#3!
TX:
https://explorer.alephium.org/transactions/9128ad2606305a12d9b260876a8ca50e979c29233ec6e8177c653ba111ed99b3
Wallet: 1FsPV5BBEJ52D1HFwaGBb98UdkdugstNnCMQx6Yg4MXPB
Lets name this wallet, WAGBB. For not so obvious reasons, but I'll show you.
WAGBB = Weak Ass Gonna Be Bridgin' (hey, just poking some fun! Please forgive me WAGBB, we're frens!)
It turns out, he already sold a total of 4,864 AYIN for 26,303 ALPH, with an average selling price of 5.4 ALPH per AYIN. The good thing is, he's still holding that ALPH.
This particular wallet was born 10 months ago.
Just 22 days ago, he bridged 11,299 ALPH to ETH. And another 50,000 two months ago. Probably he's dumping there in stealth mode, y'know. Told ya, WAGBB!
HERE'S THE CAVEAT!
Some of his thick ALPH were just transferred from GATE to this wallet first: 1CR22c7EEwKi7GQT1womttQKfBWnw76H7NsHM3rqpodC7
This wallet's birthday? Two friggin' years ago! So this is an OG after all.
Of course, some large incoming transfers from the BRIDGE too!
WAGBB Conclusion:
This is a crypto OG as he uses both CEX and ETH bridge.
He is still hodling the ALPH, still a bull.
He didn't fat-finger that sell button on CEX today. That's not him.
Whale Dump #4
TX: https://explorer.alephium.org/transactions/efd995b498bc0cd19c80de044e0a8d81dbc7b3d5f56a5a185d16cab521e2b4cf
Wallet: 17WiVrH7ZcZaaMoVYBw43DurepcvdnjjQcVZLrLccpQ7c
We will name this wallet, MOVY. (Like MOVY DICK, The big whale. Ya'dig?)
So earlier, he also sold ALL his AYIN. All 2'723 of them for 14'785 ALPH.
Wallet's birthday? Two years ago! ALPH was bought from GATE. This wallet belongs to an OG too! Just like WAGBB! Look:
Two of his transactions tho were sent to MEXC. 19 days ago. Huh.
Didn't WAGBB bridge 11.3k ALPH 22 days ago? Are they related? Unlikely. This guy has a cold wallet. Stick with me. Look at these transactions from a year ago, page 18:
And when you click that 12ShgV wallet:
BOOM. A cold wallet. A black hole where ALPH never leaves.
Also, he regularly transfers small chunks of ALPH to an address that eventually ends up in MEXC. I'm thinking this is his resting wallet, and the other one is his cold wallet. All these are probably trading profits.
MOVY Dick Conclusion
Final Conclusion
3 whales dumped AYIN completely today, in just one single 4-hour candle.
They are different people with different practices. Some dump on Gate, some on MEXC, and some on the ETH Chain.
These guys DID NOT sell any ALPH on exchanges today.
The ALPH dip on CEXes was probably a market reaction to the AYIN capitulations.
Nothing has changed. Three whales, three different practices. They all sold their AYIN but held their ALPH.
BTC intact. Altcoin market intact.
Action Plan
BTFD.
Whew. Now I hold 12.5k ALPH worth of vALPHAYIN LP. 4.5k ALPH worth of xAYIN.
"Nobody is going to hold your hand."
"Bet on the jockey, not on the horse."
"This is a big bet on Walter."
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